Original Text(~250 words)
OF PROGNOSTICATIONS For what concerns oracles, it is certain that a good while before the coming of Jesus Christ they had begun to lose their credit; for we see that Cicero troubled to find out the cause of their decay, and he has these words: “Cur isto modo jam oracula Delphis non eduntur, non modo nostro aetate, sed jam diu; ut nihil possit esse contemptius?” [“What is the reason that the oracles at Delphi are no longer uttered: not merely in this age of ours, but for a long time past, insomuch that nothing is more in contempt?” --Cicero, De Divin., ii. 57.] But as to the other prognostics, calculated from the anatomy of beasts at sacrifices (to which purpose Plato does, in part, attribute the natural constitution of the intestines of the beasts themselves), the scraping of poultry, the flight of birds-- “Aves quasdam . . . rerum augurandarum causa natas esse putamus.” [“We think some sorts of birds are purposely created to serve the purposes of augury.”--Cicero, De Natura Deor., ii. 64.] claps of thunder, the overflowing of rivers-- “Multa cernunt Aruspices, multa Augures provident, multa oraculis declarantur, multa vaticinationibus, multa somniis, multa portentis.” [“The Aruspices discern many things, the Augurs foresee many things, many things are announced by oracles, many by vaticinations, many by dreams, many by portents.”--Cicero, De Natura Deor., ii. 65.] --and others of the like nature, upon which antiquity founded most of their public and private enterprises, our religion has totally abolished them. And...
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Summary
Montaigne takes aim at humanity's obsession with predicting the future, from ancient oracles to modern fortune tellers. He starts by noting that even the famous Oracle at Delphi had lost its credibility long before Christianity arrived—people were already questioning why the gods had gone quiet. He then walks through various forms of divination: reading animal entrails, watching bird flight patterns, interpreting thunder and floods. While our religion has mostly abolished these practices, we still cling to astrology, palm reading, and dream interpretation. Montaigne shares a cautionary tale about Francesco, Marquis of Saluzzo, who was so spooked by prophecies predicting the French king's downfall that he switched sides and betrayed his loyal patron—only to lose everything anyway. The essay reveals how our desperate need to know what's coming next makes us vulnerable to charlatans and our own fears. Montaigne argues that those who claim to predict the future are like someone shooting arrows all day—eventually they'll hit something and claim they're expert marksmen. He points out that nobody keeps track of failed predictions, only the occasional lucky guess. The real wisdom, he suggests, comes from Socrates' inner voice—not supernatural prophecy, but the kind of sharp intuition that emerges from a life of careful thinking and good judgment. Rather than wasting energy trying to peek around tomorrow's corner, we should focus on living fully in today.
That's what happens. To understand what the author is really doing—and to discuss this chapter with confidence—keep reading.
Terms to Know
Oracle at Delphi
The most famous fortune-telling site in ancient Greece, where priestesses claimed to speak for the god Apollo. People traveled from across the Mediterranean to ask about everything from personal decisions to military campaigns. By Montaigne's time, even the ancients admitted it had lost credibility.
Modern Usage:
Like how psychic hotlines or celebrity fortune tellers eventually get exposed as frauds, but people keep calling anyway.
Augury
The practice of predicting the future by watching bird flight patterns, examining animal entrails, or interpreting natural events like thunder. Roman officials called augurs made major political decisions based on these signs.
Modern Usage:
Similar to how people read horoscopes, check their lucky numbers, or look for 'signs from the universe' before making big decisions.
Prognostication
Any attempt to predict future events, whether through supernatural means, reading omens, or interpreting dreams. Montaigne uses this broad term to cover everything from ancient oracles to Renaissance astrology.
Modern Usage:
Like weather forecasting, stock market predictions, or political polling - except these old methods had no scientific basis.
Aruspices
Roman priests who claimed to predict the future by examining the livers and intestines of sacrificed animals. They looked for unusual colors, shapes, or markings that supposedly revealed divine messages.
Modern Usage:
Like people who claim they can read your future in tea leaves, palm lines, or tarot cards - finding meaning in random patterns.
Vaticination
Prophetic utterances or predictions, especially those claimed to come from divine inspiration. The word comes from the same root as Vatican, referring to the prophetic power attributed to religious authorities.
Modern Usage:
Like when TV pundits or social media influencers make bold predictions about politics or the economy, claiming special insight.
Socratic Inner Voice
Socrates claimed he had an inner voice or conscience that warned him away from bad decisions. Unlike supernatural prophecy, this was rational intuition developed through years of careful thinking and self-examination.
Modern Usage:
Like trusting your gut feeling or that little voice that tells you something's not right - but only after you've done your homework.
Characters in This Chapter
Cicero
Classical authority
Roman orator and philosopher who questioned why the Oracle at Delphi had stopped giving prophecies. Montaigne uses Cicero's skepticism to show that even the ancients recognized fortune-telling was losing credibility.
Modern Equivalent:
The respected journalist who investigates and debunks popular scams
Francesco, Marquis of Saluzzo
Cautionary example
A nobleman who became so terrified by prophecies predicting his patron's downfall that he betrayed his loyalty and switched sides. His fear of the future destroyed his present relationships and cost him everything.
Modern Equivalent:
The employee who quits a good job based on office rumors and conspiracy theories
Socrates
Wise counterexample
The Greek philosopher who claimed to have an inner voice that guided his decisions. Montaigne presents him as the right kind of 'prophecy' - not supernatural prediction, but rational intuition developed through careful thinking.
Modern Equivalent:
The mentor who has great instincts because they've learned from experience
Plato
Classical reference
Ancient philosopher who tried to give scientific explanations for why animal entrails might reveal the future. Montaigne mentions him to show how even great thinkers got caught up in fortune-telling.
Modern Equivalent:
The smart person who tries to make pseudoscience sound logical
Why This Matters
Connect literature to life
This chapter teaches how to spot people who exploit uncertainty by making confident predictions without real expertise.
Practice This Today
This week, notice when someone makes bold predictions about the future—ask yourself what qualifies them to know and whether they're selling something.
You have the foundation. Now let's look closer.
Key Quotes & Analysis
"What is the reason that the oracles at Delphi are no longer uttered: not merely in this age of ours, but for a long time past, insomuch that nothing is more in contempt?"
Context: Cicero questioning why the famous Oracle had lost credibility even before Christianity arrived
This shows that people were already skeptical of fortune-telling long before modern times. Even the ancients noticed when their prophets stopped getting things right and started asking hard questions.
In Today's Words:
Why did everyone stop believing these fortune tellers? They've been a joke for ages now.
"Those who make it their business to pry into the secrets of future events are like archers who shoot arrows all day long - some of them are bound to hit the mark."
Context: Montaigne explaining why fortune tellers occasionally seem accurate
This reveals the logical fallacy behind believing in predictions. If you make enough guesses, some will be right by pure chance. People remember the hits and forget the hundreds of misses.
In Today's Words:
If you throw enough darts at a board, you'll eventually hit something and then claim you're an expert.
"We are more apt to be deceived by having too much confidence than too little."
Context: Montaigne warning about the dangers of overconfidence in predictions
This captures the core problem with fortune-telling - it makes us overconfident about an unknowable future. That false confidence leads to bad decisions, like Francesco's betrayal of his patron.
In Today's Words:
Being too sure about things you can't really know will get you in more trouble than admitting you don't know.
Intelligence Amplifier™ Analysis
The Road of Anxiety Fortune-Telling
When fear of the future makes us vulnerable to anyone who claims they can predict it, leading us to act against our own interests.
Thematic Threads
Vulnerability
In This Chapter
Anxiety about the future makes people susceptible to false prophets and charlatans who promise certainty
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might find yourself believing workplace gossip or health scares when you're already stressed about other things.
Deception
In This Chapter
Fortune-tellers succeed not by being right, but by sounding confident while people forget their failures
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might notice how some people gain influence by making bold predictions, even when they're often wrong.
Fear
In This Chapter
Francesco's fear of prophecies led him to betray his patron and destroy his own position
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might make hasty decisions when scared, like switching jobs based on rumors rather than facts.
Wisdom
In This Chapter
True insight comes from Socrates' 'inner voice'—judgment developed through experience and careful thinking
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might recognize that your best decisions come from trusting your own experience rather than other people's predictions.
Control
In This Chapter
Montaigne suggests focusing energy on present actions rather than trying to control an unknowable future
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might waste less time worrying about things you can't predict and more time on what you can actually influence.
Modern Adaptation
When the Promotion Goes Sideways
Following Arthur's story...
Arthur's been teaching philosophy at the community college for eight years when budget cuts threaten his department. Suddenly everyone's an expert on what's coming next. The union rep swears layoffs are imminent based on 'inside information.' A colleague insists the college is definitely merging with the state university because her brother-in-law heard something at a school board meeting. The department secretary whispers about early retirement packages that might be offered. Arthur finds himself checking job boards at 2am, updating his CV based on rumors, and even considering a psychic his sister recommended. When the dean finally announces the actual plan—a modest restructuring with no layoffs—Arthur realizes he spent three months making himself miserable over predictions that never materialized. Meanwhile, his anxiety made him snap at students and avoid the very networking that could have actually helped his career.
The Road
The road Francesco walked in 1580, Arthur walks today. The pattern is identical: anxiety about an uncertain future makes us vulnerable to anyone who claims they can predict it, leading us to make decisions based on fear rather than facts.
The Map
This chapter provides a tool for distinguishing between useful preparation and anxiety-driven speculation. Arthur can learn to ask: What evidence supports this prediction? What's this person's track record? What can I actually control?
Amplification
Before reading this, Arthur might have treated every workplace rumor as actionable intelligence, exhausting himself with worry. Now he can NAME the pattern of false prophets feeding on anxiety, PREDICT that most dire predictions won't materialize, and NAVIGATE by focusing on what he can actually control.
You now have the context. Time to form your own thoughts.
Discussion Questions
- 1
Why did Francesco, the Marquis of Saluzzo, betray his loyal patron based on prophecies about the French king's downfall?
analysis • surface - 2
According to Montaigne, why do we remember the few times fortune-tellers get something right but forget all their failed predictions?
analysis • medium - 3
Where do you see people today falling for false promises about predicting the future - in politics, health, finance, or relationships?
application • medium - 4
How can you tell the difference between someone with genuine expertise and someone just selling false certainty about what's coming next?
application • deep - 5
What does Montaigne's concept of 'inner voice' suggest about building real wisdom versus seeking magical predictions?
reflection • deep
Critical Thinking Exercise
Track Your Prediction Anxiety
Think about a current situation where you're anxious about the future - a job change, relationship, health concern, or family issue. Write down what specific predictions or reassurances you've been seeking from others. Then identify what you can actually control or influence in this situation right now, today.
Consider:
- •Notice how anxiety makes you want someone else to guarantee outcomes
- •Recognize the difference between helpful planning and magical thinking
- •Focus on building your own judgment rather than seeking false certainty
Journaling Prompt
Write about a time when fear of the unknown led you to trust someone who promised certainty but couldn't actually deliver. What would you do differently now?
Coming Up Next...
Chapter 12: When to Stand Your Ground
The coming pages reveal to distinguish between smart retreat and cowardice, and teach us emotional reactions don't define your character. These discoveries help us navigate similar situations in our own lives.