Chapter 47
The Uncertainty of Our Judgment

This chapter reveals a fundamental pattern: intelligent people can reach opposite conclusions using equally sound reasoning. Montaigne shows us that most complex situations contain multiple valid perspectives, each supported by logical arguments and real evidence. The mechanism operates through selective focus and competing values. When generals debate whether to press an advantage, both sides marshal convincing evidence. Those favoring aggression point to momentum and demoralization of enemies. Those favoring restraint cite the desperation of cornered opponents and historical reversals. Both are right within their framework. The pattern emerges because complex situations contain multiple variables that can't be perfectly weighted or predicted. This exact pattern dominates modern life. At work, your manager and union rep reach opposite conclusions about overtime policies—both using valid data about productivity and worker welfare. In healthcare, doctors disagree about treatment approaches, each citing legitimate studies and patient outcomes. Family members split on caring for aging parents—some prioritizing independence, others safety, both from genuine concern. Political neighbors reach opposite conclusions about the same policy, each using real statistics and moral principles. When you recognize this pattern, resist the urge to prove one side completely wrong. Instead, ask: 'What valid concerns does each side address?' Look for the underlying values driving each position. In workplace conflicts, acknowledge legitimate points from all parties before proposing solutions. In family disputes, identify the core needs each person is trying to meet. This doesn't mean all positions are equal—some may be better supported or more practical—but starting with intellectual humility opens paths to resolution that rigid certainty closes off. When you can name the pattern of competing truths, predict how people will dig into opposing positions, and navigate toward solutions that address multiple valid concerns—that's amplified intelligence.